If soft drink consumption is dropping, why are we getting fatter?

Posted by on February 25, 2013

I saw an article from Reuters by Silvia Antonioli, and the subject excited me: Analysis: Health-conscious Americans hurt aluminum can market.

Wow–consumption of sugary drinks in aluminum cans is declining as Americans switch to bottle water and iced tea. The article is well-written, but it is a news article not a scholarly study.

So, I thought: Maybe it is absolutely correct, but:

  1. Americans might have health concerns about aluminum cans and be switching to larger (16.9 oz and 20 oz) soft drink bottles.
  2. Consumption of aluminum cans may have declined because of recession and economic uncertainty, not health concerns.
  3. The decline in consumption of aluminum cans might be diet sodas or beer or even juice not soft drinks

    4. The Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) publishes data on production of cans, but the latest data are proprietary, sold, and probably more available to a Reuters reporter. The following graphic confirms the decline in cans for carbonated soft drinks and increase in alcoholic beverage cans 2008-2010.

    MetalCans 2008_2010

    Source: CMI 2010 Annual Report

    Looking at a longer period (1970-2005), aluminum can production for soft drinks peaked in 1998 and for beer in 1990.

    Can Production 1970-2005

    An excerpt from a white paper by Ibis World confirms the points in the Reuters article:

    IBISWorld on Canned Soft Drinks

    I came to the thesis of the Reuters article as a skeptic, but now tend to be more accepting. That conversion leaves a more pressing mystery: if soft drink consumption is really dropping, why are we not dropping pounds as well?

Obesity, Uncategorized,

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