One of the more interesting aspects of firearm mortality is the trend over the past 15-20 years. Beginning in 1994 the rate of mortality began to drop. That was the year that the assault weapon ban passed. Note that the rate of firearm deaths was close to the rate for deaths in motor vehicle accidents.
The rate of firearm deaths dropped from 1993 to 1999 and has remained level since then. The rate of death from motor vehicle accidents has dropped, but not as steeply.
The rate of death from poisonings has nearly tripled. What is that all about?
It might be thought that the assault weapons ban brought down the death rate, but that is not likely. The chart below compares 1993 to 2004, showing that the rate for suicide with firearms dropped about the same as the rate for homicides. I may be mistaken, but assault weapons are not the weapon of choice for suicide. Something else must have been happening in those ten years, or until 1999, at least. I don’t know what it was, but it would be nice to replicate it.
When events like the Newtown massacre dominate the airwaves, we would like to act to prevent the next one. I think we should act to prevent the next one. However, the data demonstrate how difficult it is to decide what will work. An effective policy does not have to solve the problem by ending all future incidents: it just has to demonstrate a substantial change in a positive direction. That will be challenge enough.
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